Environmental Graffiti

George Strait might get his ocean front property in Arizona , after all - California is expected to have a magnitude 6.7 or higher quake in the next 30 years, the rough equivalent of the 1994 Northridge earthquake that collapsed freeways and shattered water mains.

This was a parking garage once. Image from htomren on Flickr

Statewide, the odds are 99.7% that the next 30 years will feature such a quake, and slightly higher in southern California than the nothern part of the state–97 to 93. The 1994 quake killed 72 people, injured 9,000, and caused $25 Billion in damage, but earthquake tolls largely depend on where they strike– a 7.1 quake struck in 1999, but was in the middle of the desert, and generated little fuss.

This study represents a far more comprehensive approach to earthquake prediction than previous examinations– in earlier years, the science would focus on a small area, and usually use different methodologies, making the data difficult to assimilate. By studying the entire state, and then breaking down regions and cities, the new data is far more easily indexed and referenced.

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