Global warming expected to snowball after 2010…
Fri, Aug 10, 2007
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A report published in the Science journal yesterday by leading climate scientists outlines the most detailed model to date predicting the climate over the next ten years – and it’s not looking good.
Whilst previous models generally focused on how the climate is likely to change over a long time period, this model, known as the Decadal Climate Prediction System (DePreSys) includes short-term natural events such as El Niño, and incorporates recent improvements in data collection of ocean temperatures, allowing climatologists to improve their understanding of how ocean dynamics influence the climate system. Now they claim the model can predict with reasonable accuracy the climate trends that will be seen over the next decade.
The Exeter-based research team suggest that between now and 2009, natural shifts in climate will counteract the effects of human activity and greenhouse gas emissions, but that after that date temperatures will rise more abruptly. Over the decade, the overall global average temperature is expected to increase by 0.3C, and after 2010 each year has at least a 50% chance of exceeded the global temperature record currently set by 1998. After 2014, the chances of breaking the record rise even further.
This model follows one released by the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Colorado at the end of last year, focusing on the polar ice caps, which suggested that after 2025 a “positive feedback loop” could kick in as Arctic ice continued to melt: “As the ice retreats, the ocean transports more heat to the Arctic and the open water absorbs more sunlight, further accelerating the rate of warming and leading to the loss of more ice.” Scientific opinion is moving away from the model of steady incremental increases in temperature and leaning towards the idea that once changes make themselves evident, the knock-on effects will speed up and become harder to predict.
Dr Doug Smith, a climate scientist involved in developing the model, commented that “The climate has already changed, and it is continuing to change; people need the best information available to help them adapt to these changes.”
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1 Trackbacks For This Post
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Uh Oh! One third of world CO2 absorbed by One Ocean. Current Changing! » Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 5:14 pm[...] to project how climate may change.” We reported on Monday that climate scientists are developing ever more accurate models to predict climate. Such tools are increasingly valuable as extreme weather patterns cause devastation around the [...]
March 26th, 2009 at 3:47 am
hello, global warming is cool, in my personal opinion
June 22nd, 2009 at 6:56 pm
Unfortunately for these so called climate scientist MODELS dont make climate.
Let me repeat that MODELS dont make climate.
The stupidity speaks for itself. The very science that Big Al scared the world with in his movie, the inconvenient truth, scientist are moving away from?!
I was led to believe that this was the exact science model.
So it has gone from global warming to climate change now it’s global warming again but this time ‘instant’
Please, please tell me that before 2025 when the models are not going according plan that these so called climate scientist wont change it again.
My friend look up the word consensus and Hegel. The communists and socialists have a very different interpretation of consensus, like making the events match a predetermined outcome. And this is what climate change is all about trying to make naive people believe in this contrived outcomes that have nothing to do with facts. Bet you did’nt know that and if you did you’re obviously in on the scam.
Just look at the top of the page, predictions then that 2007 to be 6th warmest year on record, and turned out be freeze your a/s/s off temperatures all around the globe.
I keep copies of my entries and I will replay this back in 2011 to show you scamsters how wrong the models are.
January 13th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
where is the global warming today????????? Europe, the US, deep freeze,,,great predictions,,,,tell the truth just once and get your heads out of Algore’s butt.
February 5th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
ok, interesting article dated 2007. We are still saying the same 2010. Propoganda in politics or is it the truth? Society decides, scientists fight to prove this and politicians scare monger us. Will we ever know until it is to late?